October 06, 2005
If a preflop raiser plays fairly tight and will fold on the flop without a made hand, doesn't this leave a huge gap that good Pokerstars players can exploit? Namely, wouldn't a bluff on the flop from the big blind become incredibly profitable? The answer is 'yes.' However, there are two reasons that we shouldn't worry so much about it. First, most players are unobservant, especially at lower limits.
Whew. Hope that math isn't too confusing. The button would lose 2 small bets since it raises the flop. In possibility 2, we can assume the button will lose the 2 small bets plus either 2 or 3 big bets (we'll average and say 2.5.) In possibility 3, the button will gain the 6.5 small bets in the flop plus an average of 1.5 big bets (2 big bets when the King or Queen falls on the turn, 1 big bet when the King or Queen falls on the river.) I know there are a lot of assumptions involved. But we're not trying to come up with a perfect answer, just an approximation.
- I purposely included one tight/aggressive player and nine loose/passive Pokerstars opponents in the simulation. After 100,000 hands simulated, the results I saw were fairly terrifying. Nobody was winning. The tight/aggressive player was only down a small amount, but the loose/passive players had lost a huge sum. Later, I saw David Sklansky write an article about what it took for one player to win a living wage at poker. Let's assume the following:
- The ultimate difference-maker in our Pokerstars bet out/check-raise debate is this scenario. In truth, the big blind would prefer if the button kept calling. With only six outs, every extra bet makes money for the big blind. Even if a non-diamond King or Eight fell, the button would not add any outs since a Jack would now give the big blind a straight. While the middle pair might be anxious to see a fold, a button calling station is giving away money.
- In this scenario, the button has a good draw. There is going to be action against a check-raise or a bet out on the flop. When only two Pokerstars opponents see a flop, there is a good chance neither player will make a hand (i.e. pair or better). If the big blind does make a pair, especially top pair, then it should be assumed that the big blind holds the best hand. However, even top pair is vulnerable. Let's look at a couple possibilities to illustrate whether the check-raise or bet out is preferable.
Flush or straight draws are possible, as well as overpairs or one pair holdings with overcard kickers; if the preflop raiser holds a good drawing Pokerstars hand, there is ample chance they will take a free card on the turn if available. In fact, one of the big blind's main concerns should be determining how their opponent reacts in exactly this situation: do they continue betting with a draw on the turn, or do they take the free card?
The second change I found in Las Vegas. I don't live in Las Vegas, but I travel there once or twice a year. I prefer the Mirage and the Bellagio, but I have found myself at other casinos as well to appease my wife and friends. But no matter where I went to play, the increase in available Pokerstars games was astounding, especially at the low limits. As I mentioned earlier, there are many competing sites, each with their own promotions and advantages, adding another edge to the selective player. So, selectivity is one positive impact of the recent growth.
And you know that the Pokerstars books aren't necessarily the easiest way to learn how to win (but they are immeasurably helpful learning why.) But I have not really told you the secret that trumps those two. It's been hinted by other authors. They tell of their early success and it very often includes one factor in common: a mentor. A mentor is somebody who teaches you how to win. Or, maybe it would be better to say a mentor is somebody you learn how to win from.
